Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 0.071218 0.080060 0.089178 0.099256 0.110052 0.121245 0.133697
2025-02-23 0.059871 0.073338 0.087971 0.104919 0.123877 0.144307 0.167866
2025-03-02 0.051365 0.067896 0.086686 0.109304 0.135480 0.164533 0.198925
2025-03-09 0.041586 0.059388 0.080545 0.106961 0.138498 0.174424 0.217925
2025-03-16 0.033552 0.051789 0.074430 0.103686 0.139614 0.181495 0.233205
2025-03-23 0.030150 0.049524 0.074412 0.107416 0.148794 0.197828 0.259206
2025-03-30 0.026812 0.046875 0.073525 0.109748 0.156044 0.211737 0.282314
2025-04-06 0.024530 0.045373 0.073894 0.113492 0.164931 0.227587 0.307793
2025-04-13 0.021268 0.042051 0.071483 0.113336 0.168685 0.237023 0.325454
2025-04-20 0.020650 0.042605 0.074373 0.120214 0.181494 0.257763 0.357086
2025-04-27 0.017582 0.038975 0.071051 0.118442 0.182885 0.264106 0.370927
2025-05-04 0.016201 0.037902 0.071305 0.121499 0.190577 0.278405 0.394701
2025-05-11 0.013837 0.035020 0.068865 0.120935 0.193777 0.287489 0.412703
2025-05-18 0.013193 0.035121 0.070989 0.126970 0.206062 0.308530 0.446177
2025-05-25 0.012335 0.034718 0.072273 0.131792 0.216756 0.327636 0.477409
2025-06-01 0.010120 0.031372 0.068596 0.129092 0.216909 0.332853 0.490839
2025-06-08 0.008055 0.027920 0.064421 0.125368 0.215412 0.335737 0.501168
2025-06-15 0.007498 0.027600 0.065472 0.129584 0.225138 0.353589 0.530967
2025-06-22 0.006765 0.026753 0.065531 0.132218 0.232603 0.368452 0.556966
2025-06-29 0.006316 0.026506 0.066612 0.136445 0.242387 0.386501 0.587242
2025-07-06 0.005365 0.024826 0.064977 0.136268 0.245731 0.395824 0.606101
2025-07-13 0.005421 0.025786 0.068241 0.144021 0.260751 0.421145 0.646195
2025-07-20 0.004416 0.023655 0.065566 0.142026 0.261361 0.426748 0.660237